The New York City Recovery Index: October 24
Editor’s notice: Beneath you may discover the week 112 launch of the NYC Restoration Index, initially printed October 25, 2022. Go to the NYC Restoration index homepage for the most recent knowledge.
New York Metropolis’s financial restoration skilled a optimistic week ending October 15. The index rating rose 4 share factors to 77 out of 100, recovering the whole thing of its decline from the earlier week and surpassing its stage from two weeks in the past. The COVID-19 hospitalization fee stabilized and is down barely from the earlier week. This week noticed an enormous decline within the variety of unemployment insurance coverage (UI) claims, which fell again beneath pre-pandemic ranges. Residence gross sales gained barely, whereas rental availability fell in a below-average week for town’s actual property market. Subway ridership rose for the second consecutive week, whereas restaurant reservations surged to their highest stage since late August.
New York Metropolis’s financial restoration stands at a rating of 77 out of 100, in response to the New York Metropolis Restoration Index, a joint challenge between Investopedia and NY1. Over two and a half years into the pandemic, New York Metropolis’s financial restoration is simply over three-quarters of the best way again to pre-pandemic ranges.
COVID-19 Hospitalizations Stabilize
COVID-19 hospitalizations in New York Metropolis stabilized at a mean of 98 per day, just under final week’s common of 99 per day, however above a latest low of 73 per day recorded in late September. The reversal in hospitalizations this week marks a optimistic change in comparison with the earlier two weeks, when the hospitalization fee rose by double digits. It’s additionally an encouraging signal for town’s ongoing well being restoration, indicating that the latest will increase in hospitalizations could solely be non permanent.
The CDC continues to challenge that nearly all present instances are omicron-related. As of October 22, just below half, or 49.8% of all infections have been attributed to the BA.5 subvariant, down from almost 75% final week. Two newly-identified strains, labeled BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, now account for 17.1% and 11.3% of present instances in New York, respectively.
The share of totally vaccinated New York Metropolis residents continues to tick greater. As of October 25, just below four-fifths, or 79.8% of residents have been totally vaccinated towards COVID-19, in response to NYC Well being & Hospitals knowledge. For the reason that begin of the pandemic, a complete of two.92 million instances—confirmed and possible—have been recorded within the metropolis, together with 42,480 deaths attributed to COVID-19.
Unemployment Claims Fall Steeply
The variety of unemployment insurance coverage (UI) claims filed all through town fell by 1,450 claims for the week ended October 15, numbering 5,230. By comparability, the 2019 rolling common of claims, which tracks the equal pre-pandemic week, rose by 110 claims to whole 5,677. As such, UI claims at the moment are 8% beneath their 2019 rolling common and are due to this fact thought of totally recovered. After 4 straight weeks of UI claims exceeding pre-pandemic ranges, the UI claims subindex is as soon as once more at a full restoration.
Residence Gross sales Enhance Barely
Citywide pending dwelling gross sales rose barely for the week ended October 15. Gross sales elevated by 19, rising to 421 properties offered, up from 402 final week. By comparability, the 2019 rolling common of gross sales fell by 9 properties, numbering 361. As such, the present stage of dwelling gross sales is 16% above its pre-pandemic rolling common, with the index measure remaining totally recovered. Damaged down by borough, dwelling gross sales in Queens proceed to guide the opposite main boroughs, with dwelling gross sales 30.2% above their pre-pandemic baseline. Gross sales in Manhattan have been 24.4% greater, whereas gross sales in Brooklyn at the moment are 3.2% beneath their pre-pandemic stage.
Rental Availability Drops
There have been 415 fewer residences accessible on New York Metropolis’s rental marketplace for the week ended October 15, totaling 15,651 vacancies. In consequence, the rental stock subindex rating declined by two share factors, to 86 out of 100, down from 88 final week. This week’s consequence marks the worst for rental availability for the reason that first week of September, simply previous to the Labor Day vacation. After a number of weeks of upward momentum, the previous two weeks have seen a discouraging reversal.
Subway Ridership Beneficial properties
MTA subway ridership skilled a strong achieve for the week ended October 15, rising for the second consecutive week. The MTA reported 3.08 million each day riders, on common, for the week. The trailing seven-day common of riders rose to 35.7% beneath its pre-pandemic baseline, after lagging pre-pandemic ranges by 36.5% within the earlier week. With this week’s enhance, ridership ranges are edging nearer to the important thing threshold of 33% down, which marks the very best consequence to date for subway ridership through the ongoing restoration from the pandemic.
ridership for different modes of transit serving New York Metropolis, town’s subway is lagging additional behind the Metro North and Lengthy Island Railroads in ridership positive aspects. As of October 23, MTA subway ridership measured simply 65.6% of its pre-pandemic stage. Ridership for the Lengthy Island Railroad (LIRR) was barely greater, at 71.9% of its pre-pandemic baseline. The Metro North railroad noticed the most important cumulative positive aspects in ridership, at 81.7% of its pre-pandemic stage.
Restaurant Reservations Surge
New York Metropolis’s restaurant trade skilled a really encouraging week, with reservations surging to 32.9% beneath their pre-pandemic baseline, up from a 37% loss final week. In consequence, the restaurant reservations subindex rating rose to 67 out of 100, with reservations now roughly one-third beneath their pre-pandemic baseline. This week’s consequence marks essentially the most favorable for town’s restaurant trade since late August, however is beneath the pandemic-era excessive of 25.4% down for the week ended July 2. The town’s eating places would require a number of extra weeks of similar-sized positive aspects to interrupt previous this stage.