Scholz overtakes Laschet in chancellor’s question | free press

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The clear lead is crumbling, the Union begins to swim slowly. If the chancellor could be directly elected, finance minister Olaf Scholz would currently win the race.

Berlin (AP) – SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz has overtaken Union candidate Armin Laschet (CDU) according to a recent poll in the electorate.

If Germany’s chancellor could be directly elected, 20 percent of those taking part in an online poll conducted by the opinion polling institute YouGov between July 23 and 26 would choose the current finance minister, Scholz. 15 percent would choose NRW Prime Minister Laschet, 13 percent would vote for the Green Party and chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock.

Wrong positions of Laschet and Scholz

The views of Laschet and Scholz have thus been reversed. A month earlier, the Union candidate was at 21 percent, his competitor from the SPD at 16 percent. Baerbock fell 2 percentage points. One possible explanation is Laschet’s actions after the devastating floods in North Rhine-Westphalia in mid-July, where he was criticized for a failure.

The Chancellor is not directly elected in Germany. Instead, parties will vote for the federal election on September 26, some of which will negotiate the formation of a coalition after the election. The governing parties usually have the majority of seats in the Bundestag. As a rule, the strongest party also supplies the head of government.

Union clearly ahead of the SPD and the Greens

When answering the question “If there were elections for the Bundestag next Sunday, which party would you vote for?” The CDU/CSU gained 28 percent (minus two points from the previous month), the SPD (plus 1) and the Greens (minus 3) were on par at 16 percent. AfD and FDP were able to improve by one point each to 12 percent. The left would have eight percent (plus 1).

Election polls are generally always full of uncertainty. The declining party ties and increasingly shorter voting decisions, among other things, make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weigh the collected data. YouGov states a statistical error tolerance of 2.1 percentage points (for a 30 percent share) and 1.0 point (for a 5 percent share). In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not a prediction of the outcome of the election.