Pfizer Sales Likely Slowed As COVID-19 Vaccine Demand Wanes

Key Takeaways

  • Analysts estimate adjusted EPS of $1.39 vs. $1.27 in Q3 FY 2021.
  • Income is predicted to fall for the primary time in two years as a result of a delay in COVID-19 vaccine shipments to Europe.
  • The Cominarty COVID-19 vaccine and Paxlovid antiviral therapy accounted for 59% of income within the first half of 2022.
  • The corporate faces questions on Cominarty’s transition to a industrial therapy priced at as much as $130 per shot early subsequent yr.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE) heads into its earnings report earlier than the market open on Nov. 1 dealing with questions concerning the evolution of demand for its COVID-19 vaccine and antiviral therapy. The main drug maker is predicted to submit adjusted Q3 FY 2022 earnings of $1.39 per share, up from $1.27 a yr earlier.

The Cominarty vaccine and Paxlovid antiviral therapy accounted for 59% of Pfizer’s income within the first half of fiscal 2022. However demand for COVID-19 vaccines has slowed all over the world, and analysts count on a year-over-year decline of practically 14% in Q3 gross sales, on common. (In 2021, Q3 income had elevated 134% over the identical quarter in 2020, because of Cominarty.)

Among the anticipated decline is expounded to a beforehand introduced delay till the present quarter of vaccine shipments to the European Union, which needed to make sure it obtained the boosters tailor-made to guard towards new COVID-19 variants.

Pfizer mentioned on an Oct. 20 investor name it’s discussing a Cominarty worth of $110 to $130 per shot with personal insurers for 2023. That might bolster income at the price of lowering vaccine demand, although the corporate mentioned these with out insurance coverage would proceed to qualify free of charge doses. Uptake of the booster pictures accessible this fall has been sluggish.

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Different Pfizer vaccines can even be in deal with the earnings name following the quarterly outcomes, together with the corporate’s market-leading pneumonia vaccine franchise Prevnar and the Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) vaccine at present in a late-stage trial. Pfizer’s anticoagulant drugs Eliquis and breast most cancers therapy Ibrance are the opposite key medicine, with Q2 gross sales of $1.7 billion and $1.3 billion respectively.

Supply: TradingView

Pfizer’s Earnings Historical past

Pfizer’s inventory fell 2.4% following its Q2 outcomes on July 28, whilst the corporate topped earnings and income expectations and nudged its annual earnings outlook barely increased.

The drug maker additionally topped earnings and income expectations in its Q1 report, and the inventory rose 2% on the day.

The inventory is down 21% in 2022, however has rebounded 12% since Oct. 10. Over the past 12 months, Pfizer shares are up practically 11%, vs. a lack of practically 16% for the S&P 500 index.

Pfizer Key Stats
  Estimate for Q3 FY 2022 Q3 FY 2021  Q3 FY 2020
Adjusted Earnings Per Share ($)  1.39 1.27 0.59
 Income ($B)  20.8  24.1  10.3

Supply: Seen Alpha