Berlin (dpa) – SPD chancellor candidate Olaf Scholz has overtaken Union candidate Armin Laschet (CDU) after several recent polls in the electorate.
If the chancellor in Germany could be directly elected, 20 percent of the participants in the online poll by the opinion research institute YouGov would choose the current finance minister, Scholz. 15 percent would choose NRW Prime Minister Laschet, 13 percent would vote for the Green Party and chancellor candidate Annalena Baerbock.
A similar picture emerges in a survey of citizens over 18 by the ZDF “Politbarometer”: here 34 percent (plus six points within two weeks) say that Scholz “prefers” them as Chancellor, followed by 29 percent for Laschet (minus eight) and 20 percent for Baerbock (plus two).
The views of Laschet and Scholz have thus been reversed. A month earlier, the Union candidate had been in the YouGov survey with 21 percent, its competitor from the SPD with 16 percent. One possible explanation is Laschet’s actions after the devastating floods in North Rhine-Westphalia in mid-July, where he was criticized for a failure.
The Chancellor is not directly elected in Germany. Instead, parties will vote for the federal election on September 26, some of which will negotiate the formation of a coalition after the election. The governing parties usually have the majority of seats in the Bundestag. As a rule, the strongest party also supplies the head of government.
CDU/CSU lead in election polls
When answering the question “If there were elections for the Bundestag next Sunday, which party would you vote for?” The CDU/CSU gained 28 percent at YouGov (minus two points from the previous month), the SPD (plus 1) and the Greens (minus 3) were on par at 16 percent. AfD and FDP were able to improve by one point each to 12 percent. The left would have eight percent (plus 1).
In the ZDF “Politbarometer”, the Union loses two points on the Sunday question within two weeks and also gains 28 percent, the Greens come in at 21 percent (plus one percentage point). The SPD rises slightly to 16 percent (plus one percentage point), as does the AfD by eleven percent (plus one point). The FDP remains unchanged at ten percent, the left at seven percent. The free voters would come to three percent.
Election polls are generally always full of uncertainty. The declining party ties and increasingly shorter voting decisions, among other things, make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weigh the collected data. For example, YouGov mentions a statistical error tolerance of 2.1 percentage points (for a share of 30 percent) and 1.0 point (for a share of 5 percent). In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not a prediction of the outcome of the election.