Hurricane Nicole: A city-by-city look at what impacts Florida can expect

Hurricane Nicole is launching its amphibious assault on Florida, and harmful surge, wind, and heavy rainfall will proceed to overspread many of the state by way of Thursday and into early Friday.

Nicole reached hurricane energy Wednesday night with winds of 70 mph because it made its first landfall within the northwestern Bahamas. Nicole is anticipated to keep up that depth because it closes in on a second landfall in Florida.

Nicole’s southward jaunt has ended, and a west to west-northwest movement will convey the storm’s heart onshore someplace between Melbourne and Jupiter very early on Thursday and into west Central Florida by mid-day Thursday.

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With a slight improve in anticipated ahead pace, Nicole’s path has nudged a bit farther west since yesterday. It’s now possible that the storm will tick into the far northeastern Gulf Thursday afternoon earlier than curving north throughout the jap Panhandle Thursday evening.

With this basic state of affairs prone to play out (plus or minus an Apalachee Bay-sized margin of error), let’s take a look at what impacts North Florida can count on from Nicole, region-by-region:

Central and South Central Florida, together with Port St. Lucie, Melbourne, Orlando, Lakeland, and Tampa

East Central Florida is anticipated to bear the brunt of Nicole. The part of shoreline between Cape Canaveral and Port St. Lucie, the place rain, wind, and surge impacts are already underway, will possible see the best coastal flooding related to excessive tides Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Peak surge values of three to five ft are possible, although greater native values are potential, notably the place the northern eyewall (or messy eyewall-like characteristic) crosses the coast early Thursday.

The northern or western eyewall can be the place potential hurricane-force winds are most potential, although wind gusts of 75 mph or larger are prone to be restricted to the coast or areas instantly inland even throughout the eyewall. Coastal areas that don’t see the eyewall on this area will possible see high gusts within the greater register of the tropical-storm-force vary. Winds alongside the coast ought to be declining by mid-morning Thursday.

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Nicole is just not prone to be particularly environment friendly at bringing winds inland. The best gusts onshore of 45 to 60 mph are most possible in Brevard, Volusia, Osceola, Orange, and Seminole Counties Thursday morning because the northern portion of Nicole’s core strikes west-northwest throughout the peninsula.

Monitoring Nicole in Treasure Coast: The place is Tropical Storm Nicole? See radars monitoring the storm close to Florida’s Treasure Coast

Monitoring Nicole in Brevard: The place is Tropical Storm Nicole? See radars monitoring the storm close to Brevard County, Florida

Peak wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph are potential in West Central Florida late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, principally north of Tampa, with low-end tropical storm-force gusts additionally occurring on the western Gulf Coast between Thursday morning and night. Ought to Nicole transfer into the northeast Gulf, 3 to five ft of storm surge can be potential on the Nature Coast as winds flip onshore Thursday afternoon. Storm Surge Warnings are in impact north of the Anclote River.

Lastly, heavier and steadier rainfall shifting in from east to west Wednesday night and persevering with in a single day will start to clear East Central Florida by mid-day Thursday and West Central Florida by Thursday night. Almost definitely storm totals are 3 to six inches east and a couple of to 4 inches west.

South Florida, from West Palm Seashore to Charlotte Harbor and south

With this area seeing the middle monitor north of it in a single day Wednesday into Thursday, impacts will likely be larger within the northern finish of the area than the southern finish. Peak surge in Palm Seashore County of two to 4 ft related to the following two excessive tides will ease by mid-day Thursday. No vital surge is anticipated in Southwest Florida, fortunately.

Low-end tropical-storm-force wind gusts alongside the Southeast Florida coast can even diminish in a single day as winds flip to offshore move, and inland wind gusts within the northern finish of this area could peak round 40 mph between midnight and midday on Thursday. Rain totals in South Florida will vary from round 1” southwest to three” or so in Palm Seashore County, with heavier precip petering out Thursday morning and occasional bands ending Thursday night.

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North Central Florida, together with Jacksonville, Lake Metropolis, St. Augustine, Gainesville, Daytona Seashore, and Ocala:

North Central Florida already has seen vital impacts from Nicole by way of Wednesday afternoon, together with vital coastal flooding overwashing A1A, and tropical-storm-force wind gusts. Rain and wind impacts will ramp up into early Thursday, with the worst circumstances anticipated between the in a single day hours and Thursday afternoon for many of this area.

Monitor the storm within the First Coast: The place is Tropical Storm Nicole? See radars monitoring the storm close to Daytona Seashore, Florida

Coastal flooding in northeast Florida and alongside the Saint Johns River basin continues to be the first risk from Nicole, the place Storm Surge Warnings are in impact. Peak storm surge of three to five ft above regular excessive water is anticipated, possible topping out with Thursday morning’s excessive tide. Whereas North Central Florida is not going to see the best winds related to Nicole’s core, Tropical Storm Warnings are in impact for your entire area, and coastal gusts will possible peak early Thursday within the 50s in northeast Florida and the 60s or above in Volusia County. Peak inland wind gusts from 40 to 50 mph are possible inland by way of the day on Thursday.

Localized flash flooding can be a priority in North Central Florida, the place the heaviest rainfall is anticipated Thursday morning and intermittent bands will linger by way of early Friday afternoon. Search for totals of 2-4” on this area, greater alongside the coast. Just a few tornadoes are additionally potential Thursday in outer bands.

Florida Panhandle, together with Tallahassee, Madison, Apalachicola, Marianna, and Steinhatchee:

The aforementioned bump west in Nicole’s monitor on Thursday makes the most important distinction in impacts within the jap Panhandle.

Particularly, a middle path that strikes throughout Apalachee Bay quite than scrapes alongside the Nature Coast leads to much more coastal flood potential alongside and east of the monitor. Ought to this happen, onshore winds (out of the south and southwest) Thursday evening and early Friday may drive 3 to five ft of storm surge throughout roughly the jap half of Apalachee Bay, with a lot much less coastal flooding west of the middle the place winds stay offshore or alongshore. As such, a Storm Surge Warning is in impact west to Ochlockonee Bay, with a Storm Surge Watch extending to Cape San Blas.

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Anticipated rain and wind impacts are additionally on the rise for the jap Panhandle. Whereas water temperatures within the northeastern Gulf are too gentle to permit re-strengthening on Thursday and the storm will wrestle to generate deep convection because it approaches the Huge Bend, Nicole’s very broad windfield continues to be anticipated to convey sustained tropical-storm-force winds to the coast by mid-day Thursday, with gusts overspreading inland areas Thursday afternoon and persevering with into early Friday morning. These wind gusts, possible topping out at 40 to 50 mph inland, will trigger tree harm and energy outages.

A GOES satellite tv for pc picture of Tropical Storm Nicole

A Tropical Storm Warning is in impact east of the Apalachicola River, together with inland areas.

The excellent news is that much-needed rainfall for the Panhandle is an element and parcel of Nicole’s mishigas. Outer bands will overspread the Panhandle from east to west on Thursday morning, with the heaviest rainfall Thursday night and showers clearing by Friday mid-morning.

Anticipate basic storm totals of 1.5″ to three” and regionally greater east of the Apalachicola River, heaviest farther east, with totals rapidly diminishing west of the river. Not a drought breaker, however it can assist.

After Nicole, a chilly entrance ought to conclude hurricane season

On the whole, Florida will see a second spherical of widespread damaging impacts from a tropical system in simply six weeks. Nicole is not going to evaluate to Ian, however will probably be impactful in its personal proper, particularly when it comes to coastal flooding.

Long run, the excellent news is {that a} weekend chilly entrance ought to put an finish to our prolonged tropical season for good; the dangerous information is earlier than it will get chilly, we should get Nicole’d.

As soon as extra unto the breach, my associates. Keep secure and maintain watching the skies.

Who’s WeatherTiger? Hurricane knowledgeable Ryan Truchelut gives Florida storm forecasts, analyses

Dr. Ryan Truchelut is chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, a Tallahassee start-up offering forensic meteorology and knowledgeable witness consulting providers, and agricultural and hurricane forecasting subscriptions. Get in contact at and go to

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This text initially appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: What Florida can count on from Hurricane Nicole: Metropolis by metropolis