The statistics of corona infected and deceased people always indicate a certain number of unreported cases. American researchers have now attempted to assess this area.
Washington (AP) – Researchers at the University of Washington in the US state of the same name expect significantly more corona deaths worldwide than official figures show.
According to estimates by the university institute IHME, 6.9 million people worldwide have died from an infection with the corona virus, director Christopher Murray said Thursday (local time). The World Health Organization (WHO) puts the number of corona deaths worldwide on the same day at approximately 3.2 million.
There are significant gaps in death records in almost every country in the world, but there are significant differences between countries, the institute said. The scientists estimate that about 120,700 people in Germany died as a result of infection with the Sars-CoV-2 pathogen. The WHO lists the number at more than 84,000. Globally, Germany is not doing badly in terms of coverage, Murray said.
In the case of Russia, the official figures (WHO: approximately 112,000) deviate very much from the Institute’s estimate (approximately 593,600 deaths). In the US, the researchers estimate the number of deaths at about 905,300 (WHO: about 573,000). In the case of India, scientists estimate that the number of deaths is around 654,400, almost three times as high as recorded (WHO: about 230,000).
The researchers derived their estimates from excess mortality: this is obtained by comparing the expected all-cause deaths in a given period before the pandemic with the actual deaths during the pandemic. In the case of excess mortality, a shift in causes of death from the pandemic has been taken into account. Due to limited mobility, there were fewer road accidents. At the same time, there were delays in the treatment of other diseases. After taking these factors into account, the scientists estimated the number of deaths attributable to Covid 19 alone, even though they were not always recorded as such.
The IHME (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) continuously published predictions of the number of deaths during the pandemic and also illustrated how protective measures such as wearing masks could influence the course of the pandemic. The White House has mentioned models of the IHME on several occasions. The institute leads the Global Burden of Disease project, a study the results of which are published annually in the journal “The Lancet” and which analyzes, among other things, causes of death, diseases and risk factors in countries around the world.
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