A Hurricane In November Is Not Weird

On the time of writing, Hurricane Lisa is Class 1 storm with winds round 80 mph. It’s on the verge of constructing landfall in Belize. Concurrently, Hurricane Martin is a “fish” storm within the central Atlantic Ocean with winds close to 75 mph. Whereas it isn’t uncommon to have a hurricane in November, it’s uncommon to see two on the similar time through the month of November.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was comparatively quiet for a lot of the season. In reality, not a single hurricane shaped through the month of August. The graphic above illustrates {that a} hurricane is way extra more likely to type in August than November. The identical illustration additionally factors out that hurricanes do, nevertheless, type in November. In reality, a Nationwide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration evaluation (under) spanning the years 1851 to 2015 illustrates the origin level for storms forming between November 1st and tenth. Each Lisa and Martin shaped in pretty typical places.

So is it uncommon to have two on the similar time? To reply this query, I flip to Colorado State College knowledgeable Dr. Phil Klotzbach. On Wednesday, he tweeted some perspective on the present state of affairs. It’s fairly uncommon. In reality, it has solely occurred thrice through the file protecting period.

The map under depicts sea floor temperature anomalies (departures from common). The Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are anomalously heat for this time of yr. Tropical programs thrive on excessive ocean warmth content material. I need to additionally level out the cooler than regular temperatures within the equatorial Pacific Ocean. That represents the present La Nina sample influencing our fall and winter season climate patterns. La Nina situations are typically favorable for extra lively Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Martin marks the thirteenth named storm of the season. When in comparison with current many years, that’s fairly near common. We nonetheless have a couple of weeks left within the season, and it’s at all times vital to recollect nature doesn’t flip some magic change on November thirtieth. We’ve seen years wherein tropical programs shaped properly into December. Even now, the fashions are hinting at some sort of “low” off the coast of Florida by early subsequent week. It ought to be watched intently.